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SamKB
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PostPosted: Tuesday, 10.Jun.2014 04:45    Post subject:   Reply with quote   

If it is any consolation, Windows Phone isn't going anywhere. It's market share is a mere 3.4% in 2013 and it will stagnate or decline in 2014. This is despite MS throwing in billions, forgoing license fees and bribing manufacturers and developers. One global company (Nokia) was brought to its knees by pushing WP exclusively.

Survey companies like IDC and Kantar who predict that WP8 will keep growing are making assumptions based on simple arithmetic projection. The history of format wars such as VHS vs. Betamax and Blue-ray vs. HD-DVD do not support the contention that a losing format will keep on growing steadily. It is usually wiped out completely or retreats into a niche format. This is because popularity of the format and content feed on each other to grow or decline.

The smartphone format war mirrors the computer format war almost exactly with Windows and Mac being the equivalent of Android and ios. with almost the same split in market share. Blackberry, Sailfish, Ubuntu and Tizen will die out like Atari, Amiga and Commodore while some like Linux may survive as a niche os if they fulfill some genuine need. In the case of WP8 it will probably die off as it doesn't fulfill any genuine need. It is just a laggard os with an inferior ecosystem which isn't any cheaper for consumers to buy.

WP8 grew last year mainly due to Nokia selling the Lumia 520 at below cost to buy market share. It's success was partly due to the fact that Android phones at that price level were generally "cheap and nasty". However the arrival of phones like the Moto E which is cheap but still gives a good user experience will eat Lumia's market for lunch.
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Ketilk
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PostPosted: Tuesday, 10.Jun.2014 14:34    Post subject:   Reply with quote   

It's too early to discount ubuntu and tizen. I see both projects as projects in pre-release stage and they can both shape up before release. I can't defend Jolla or SailfishOS in the same way though.

I think Samsung can make tizen successful if they want, but only if they want. They need to put in some initial effort to overcome the niche-stage, but it is certainly doable. While I feel Tizen has less niche potential, they have more mass market potential. If they spend the same effort promoting tizen as microsoft/nokia did for WP then I believe Tizen will be very successful. Much more successful than WP ever will be. After a few years I think it will become the third OS and be self sustainable so they can sell phones and actually earn money by doing so. Samsung has the technical knowledge, the money and the marketing knowledge to succeed if they want to put in enough resources.

Samsung is responsible for the Flash-Friendly File System(F2FS) for linux. I have no idea if they intend to use it in Tizen, but it proves some of the samsung devisions take linux seriously.
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Michal Jerz
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PostPosted: Tuesday, 10.Jun.2014 23:09    Post subject:   Reply with quote   

No matter how crippled Tizen turns out to be (i.e. how much more Bada than MeeGo), it will still be more functional than WP8, which is the most closed/locked and restricted platform. Qt is available for all platforms including Tizen (and even iOS) but not for WP. Every other platform can be rooted, jailbroken, etc., or at least applications can be freely sideloaded as on BB10, but not WP. Functionally, only in the most recent 8.1 update WP is getting as basic features as e.g. changing a wallpaper - so I can't imagine how Tizen could be offering less than that right from the start.

The more surprising it was for me to see a Jolla fansite so severely bashing Tizen while not having any problems with even more crippled WP. Apparently, there must have been some reasons behind it.

Anyway, as Ketlik wrote, if Samsung only really wants to make Tizen popular, I'm sure they can do it. Bada wasn't successful (well, it still was more popular than WP at that time....) only because Samsung never treated it too seriously - they didn't promote it too much and were much more focused on their Android based smartphones. If they now treat Tizen seriously and really want it to become their primary platform, things may look completely different. On the other hand, we don't really know how WP will be doing now that Nokia is no longer Nokia. The Nokia logo will probably sooner or later disappear from new Lumia devices, and it remains to be seen how people will react to that and if all of them will stay loyal to the brand that is no more. We shall also see how Microsoft will be doing now that it fully controls the Lumia series - it's not a secret that Microsoft does not have too much luck when it comes to hardware. If Microsoft forces their own designs and ideas, Lumias' success may be history soon. Finally, while the PureView camera is Lumia's biggest advantage, other manufacturers already started offering cameras with high resolutions, optical stabilizations and even optical zooms. Either Microsoft quickly adds some new powerful features to Lumia's camera or soon it'll lose the advantage of being the only such powerful camera on the market and will be quite average.

As for SamKB's post, Commodore/Amiga's death wasn't really caused by no space on the market for multiple OSes. Commodore/Amiga (and Atari too) died because of a series of terriby wrong decisions, extremely poor marketing and hopeless management. When the Amiga 1000/Amiga 500 came out in mid '80s (1985-87) it certainly was the most powerful home computer at that time, especially graphics/music and video capabilities etc., but also generally ease of use and user-friendliness. It became extremely popular, with many famous people (like e.g. Andy Warhol) using and promoting it. But instead of following on that success, Commodore kept wasting time and money on as silly things as manufacturing PC AT-compatible clones (which never gave them any success or profits - yet they kept promoting them as business solutions while completely failing to do so with their high-end Amiga models like the A2000, A3000, A4000) rather than fully focusing on the Amiga series. It took Commodore over THREE YEARS to release the Amiga 600/3000 (which didn't bring much improvements considering the time that passed since A500 launch) and then again nearly another THREE YEARS to release the A1200/A4000 which finally offered a much improved AGA chipset but it was simply too late. And it looked almost the same in case of Atari, where only the Falcon brought considerable improvements, but that so many years (SIX or so) after the release of the successful 520ST that it was simply too late for it.

Which quite closely resembles all the mistakes that Nokia made with dumping Hildon, killing UIQ and not treating Maemo seriously until late 2000s, and instead of that wasting half a decade on trying to implement touch UI on Series 60 and eventually achieving it TOO LATE - more than a year AFTER the iPhone's launch. So it was all about wrong decisions, in each of those cases.
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misterc
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PostPosted: Tuesday, 10.Jun.2014 23:46    Post subject:   Reply with quote   

maybe Samsung's choice not to push Bada came from their analysing it and realising the platform would cost too much to bring to level w/ Android & Co?
was ok against Symbian (S60 >;e)
thus the move to MeeGo / Tizen.
are they in for it?
well, the Samsung Z runs on a 2.3 GHz quadcore CPU - that's only 0.2 GHz slower then the Galaxy S5
if Tizen is only ½ as fast as MeeGo / Sailfish OS, that should still be 'nough to rush by most iCrap devices ¦-))))
with LTE and 2 GB of RAM it certainly beats the 770 (no GSM & all)
in fact the Z's specs are on par with the S5's, Samsung's current flagship(?)
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Michal Jerz
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PostPosted: Wednesday, 11.Jun.2014 00:14    Post subject:   Reply with quote   

Quote:

well, the Samsung Z runs on a 2.3 GHz quadcore CPU - that's only 0.2 GHz slower then the Galaxy S5

And if Tizen is just Linux rather than a Java virtual machine running on top of Linux like Android, I suppose that Tizen will run much faster on a slower CPU.
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SamKB
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PostPosted: Thursday, 12.Jun.2014 08:53    Post subject:   Reply with quote   

I seriously doubt Samsung will have the same success with Tizen as they did with Bada. Bada managed to gain a foothold because it was sold about 30% cheaper than Android for the same hardware and the market was far less consolidated than it is now. Selling cheaper doesn't work anymore as you can't beat Android phones on price now. Getting developers interested in Tizen will be an insurmountable barrier.

Bada died due to Samsung's mismanagement of the os and half-hearted efforts to promote it. It was as if Samsung feared Bada's success will eat into its Android sales. Eventually lack of developer interest laid the os to rest. Not that Samsung cried. It was as much responsible for killing Bada as the lack of apps.

It doesn't matter how good Tizen is but the ship has sailed for a new os to succeed in today's smartphone world. The os war is already over and the winners are Android and ios. There is no more space or mindshare left for another os. Building up a creditable app ecosystem now is next to impossible and compatibility with Android apps won't do any good. Just ask Blackberry. The beauty of the os isn't the deciding factor for survival, it's APPS.

As for WP8 Microsoft can slow down its march to oblivion by pouring money into it, bribing developers and manufacturers alike but it's like trying to fight a rising tide by building sand castles. There isn't any good reason to buy a WP8 phone with an inferior os and inferior ecosystem for the same price. Eventually Microsoft Devices will suffer the indignity of selling Android phones exclusively just like Sony ended up manufacturing VHS players.
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Michal Jerz
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PostPosted: Thursday, 12.Jun.2014 10:05    Post subject:   Reply with quote   

Quote:

The os war is already over and the winners are Android and ios. There is no more space or mindshare left for another os.

Not so long ago everyone thought that the OS war was over and the winner was Symbian, which at that time had ~70% marketshare. Guess what happened only a year later.

People quickly get bored and need something new. Wait one more year and everyone will be bored with (indeed boring) Android and will be looking for a more inspiring alternative. Just to have something new and different. That's also why some people buy WP8 now - not because they really like it (as there isn't much to like about that completely uninspiring platform) but just to have something new.

Quote:

Selling cheaper doesn't work anymore as you can't beat Android phones on price now.

That's a simpification. Not all Android phones are cheap, only the low-end and mid-range ones. High end Android phones are actually very expensive. And the Tizen phone shown by Samsung also is a high-end one, so if it turns out to be considerably cheaper than high-end Android phones then it can compete with them.

Quote:

Getting developers interested in Tizen will be an insurmountable barrier.

It depends. Offer them really good conditions right from the start (and no unbearable competition with Android apps like on BB10) and they'll at least try. And as Tizen is first of all HTML5 oriented, it does not require much efforts to develop for.

It will all depend on what they do with Android compatibility. If they don't distribute Android apps via their official app store (only apps made specially for Tizen) then developing for Tizen may turn out to be profitable. And if so then developers will come. Otherwise, Tizen will end up as just an Android emulator, like Jolla.

Quote:

Just ask Blackberry.

Like I wrote, what so badly affected building a strong BB10 ecosystem was focusing too much on Android compatibility. Before any native apps appeared, BlackBerry World got flooded with tens of thousands of Android apps, making development of native BB10 apps unprofitable. And BB10 developers (who only have a few million of BB10 users as potential customers) cannot compete with authors of Android apps (who sell them both to over one billion of Android users and a few million of BB10 users) - either they need to have higher prices to earn anything (and in such case people don't want to buy their apps if they can buy cheaper Android apps) or if they have the same prices then they don't earn even just for a sixpack of beer. That's what makes BB10 development unprofitable. If not Android compatibility, I'd be selling 50x more copies (like on Harmattan and Symbian when they were still alive) which for me would be more than enough to keep developing for BB10 forever. So I can only repeat: THE ONLY thing that prevented building a strong native BB10 ecosystem was Android compatibility.

On Windows Phone lack of Android compatibility caused that hundreds of thousands of native applications were created, and WP developers make much more money than BB10 developers, so they stick to WP.

That's the point.
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misterc
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PostPosted: Thursday, 12.Jun.2014 11:01    Post subject:   Reply with quote   

who knows where Symbian would be now without the Flop @$$O...

to the LostDOS Paralysed / WP demise...
Maemo never was a commercially successful project - it was always "subventioned" by Symbian.
m$ has a $h!t load of $$$$$$s to pour into it, e.g. from the royalties they get on every sold Android device alone
they make a lot more money from that then they ever made or will make from LostDOS Paralysed >¦-))))))
well, they never made any money from that, thus...
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